The shockwaves of the war in Iran are reaching the South Caucasus.

Although Armenia’s border with Iran makes up barely half a percent of the latter’s vast land frontier, its strategic weight exceeds the length by far. Yerevan, aware of its fragile geopolitical footing, is working hard to preserve the delicate relationship with its biggest neighbour and so far remains one of the few states in the region to have avoided direct fallout from the war.

In contrast, Azerbaijan, with its border to Iran fifteen times longer than Armenia’s, has not been spared: drones struck its territory in Nakhichevan, but Tehran firmly denies any responsibility. After initial threats, Baku has returned to its familiar blend of firmness and pragmatism, sending both humanitarian aid and congratulations to Iran’s new Supreme Leader.

Similar greetings were sent from Tbilisi. But while Georgia does not share a border with Iran, Western partners think that the government and related media outlets have crossed different kinds of borders in the fields of journalistic standards and human rights. As the democratic opposition launches a new platform of unity, relations between the Georgian government and the West are likely to continue along a line of tensions and sanctions – regardless of how military events evolve in the South.

Newest polling suggests Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his ruling Civil Contract party remain the most popular political force ahead of Armenia’s June parliamentary elections. An IRI survey found that nearly 30% of respondents would vote for Civil Contract if elections were held immediately, placing it well ahead of opposition parties. Pashinyan also ranks as the country’s most trusted political figure, while his closest challengers trail by a wide margin. The survey also indicates that many voters remain undecided and that public concerns are increasingly focused on economic challenges, while support for closer ties with the European Union and ongoing efforts to reach a lasting peace agreement with Azerbaijan remains strong.

Yerevan Rejects Russian Aid as Election Interference Concerns Escalate

Tensions over potential foreign influence are intensifying in Armenia as the country heads toward its 7 June parliamentary elections. Authorities rejected a planned delivery of Russian humanitarian aid for displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, citing electoral regulations that restrict charitable activities during the campaign period.

Simultaneously, Armenian intelligence and civil society groups have warned of alleged attempts to influence the vote, including claims that voters living abroad are being pressured or incentivized to travel to Armenia and support particular political forces. The debate has been further fueled by controversial statements from pro-Russian figures, including former Nagorno-Karabakh official Vitaly Balasanyan, who suggested Armenia should join the Russia-Belarus Union State.

An OSCE report published under the Moscow Mechanism has raised serious concerns about democratic backsliding and human rights violations in Georgia since 2024. The document describes a pattern of violence against protesters, opposition figures, and journalists—at times potentially amounting to torture—alongside growing repressions. It further highlights concerns about judicial independence, the use of criminal proceedings against political opponents, and the broader weakening of political pluralism.

While the report calls on Georgian authorities to release political detainees, repeal restrictive legislation, and investigate alleged abuses, government officials rejected the findings as politically motivated, while opposition voices argue the conclusions reflect mounting international alarm over Georgia’s democratic trajectory.

Opposition Parties form new alliance

In a bid to overcome years of fragmentation, several Georgian opposition forces have agreed to coordinate their political strategy. Nine parties signed a joint document outlining an alliance aimed at challenging the ruling Georgian Dream and restoring what they describe as democratic governance and the country’s Euro-Atlantic course.

Operating under the principle of “unity without uniformity,” the parties will maintain separate identities while coordinating protest activity, messaging, and international outreach, and advocating for the release of political prisoners and new free elections. While the initiative represents one of the most significant attempts at opposition coordination in recent years, some parties declined to join the alliance.

EU Drops Kulevi Port from Sanctions List as UK Targets Pro-Government TV Channels

The EU ultimately decided not to include Georgia’s Kulevi oil terminal in its 20th sanctions package against Russia, following assurances from Georgian authorities and the port’s operator, Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, that EU-sanctioned vessels would not be serviced there. The decision came after earlier reports suggested the terminal could be targeted over concerns about the transportation of Russian oil and activity linked to the “shadow fleet.”

At the same time, the UK imposed sanctions on two pro-government Georgian broadcasters, Imedi TV and POSTV, accusing them of spreading Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine. The move prompted sharp criticism from the Georgian government, while the sanctions triggered internal changes at Imedi and raised questions about the broadcasters’ financial and operational future.

Baku on Alert After Nakhchivan Strike as Conflict Spills into the South Caucasus

Azerbaijan has placed its armed forces on alert following a drone strike on Nakhchivan International Airport that Baku attributes to Iran. President Ilham Aliyev condemned the attack as a “terrorist act,” and warned of a potential response, while Tehran denied responsibility and claimed the incident was an Israeli false-flag operation. Reports indicate Azerbaijani troops have been deployed along the Iranian border, while Turkey reaffirmed its security commitment to Azerbaijan under their mutual defence pact.

Despite the confrontation, Baku also sent humanitarian aid to Iran and assisted with evacuations from the country, highlighting the complex and volatile dynamics shaping relations between the two neighbours.

Azerbaijan Claims to Foil Iranian Plot Against Pipeline as Oil Prices Boost Revenues

Azerbaijan’s security services say they have uncovered an alleged Iranian-linked plot targeting the strategic Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and Jewish sites in the country. Authorities reported arrests and convictions connected to the case, though some observers have questioned the credibility of the suspects presented by the government. The allegations add to already strained relations between Baku and Tehran.

At the same time, the ongoing conflict involving Iran has driven global oil prices higher, potentially delivering a significant financial windfall for Azerbaijan, whose state budget and export revenues remain heavily dependent on energy shipments through the BTC pipeline.

Azerbaijani businessman tied to Russian Oil Sanction Circumvention